Kurt Campbell (second from right) speaks as his co-panelists -- (from left) Edward Lincoln, Kent Calder and Fumiaki Kubo -- listen during the Feb. 21 symposium at Keidanren Kaikan.

Kurt Campbell, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the declaration, issued Feb. 19 in Washington following the so-called two-plus-two meeting of foreign and defense chiefs of Japan and the U.S., will have "enormous" consequences.

"For the first time in over a generation, the United States and Japan issued a document that suggests a parallel interest in the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," Campbell told the Feb. 21 symposium at Keidanren Kaikan, organized by Keizai Koho Center.

Campbell and other security and economic experts discussed the policies of the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush in his second term.

Campbell, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific, said the declaration was significant in that "it's been some time since Washington made big news in Asia."

Campbell observed how the general expectation when Bush came into office in 2001 was that the United States would focus its attention and resources on challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

"At that time, every major conventional challenge for peace and stability was found in Asia . . . dangerous situation on the Korean Peninsula, unstable relationship between China and Taiwan . . . and of course the dangerous nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan," he said, adding there also was concern that China's growing influence would "stretch America's strategic ingenuity in the region."

"Now of course Sept. 11 changed all that," keeping the Bush team preoccupied "away from Asia" and busy dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan, he said.

Campbell likened the situation to a soccer game by his daughter and her friends. "We tell (them) that when you take the field, do not run to the ball. Hold your position. Two minutes after they take the field, they are clumped in a little ball, all around the ball and kicking at it, leaving vast areas of the field uninhabited."

But that is about to change, he noted.

Campbell said it would be wrong for the U.S. to ignore dramatic developments taking place in Asia -- especially the rise of China.

"What's happening in Washington is a growing recognition -- Republicans and Democrats -- that if we are truly to be successful . . . we cannot focus our exclusive energy simply on the Middle East, that we need to be a deeply embedded and committed Asia-Pacific partner," he said.

Predictably, the two-plus-two declaration has drawn China's ire while being welcomed by Taiwan.

Campbell noted that the goal of the United States and Japan is "not simply to issue our concerns about Chinese military buildup, or provocative missile activities" but to "say to the leadership in Taiwan that risky political strategies" are not acceptable.

He said the declaration must be followed up by "intensive diplomacy," given that it was issued at a time of continuing political tensions between Japan and China.

"The biggest issue that I worry about currently is not so much tension across the Taiwan Strait. I think that's an issue we can manage. Ironically, what I'm most worried about is the relationship between Japan and China," he said.

"At the very basis of peace and stability in Asia as a whole, the relationship between Japan and China is becoming much more complicated," he said, predicting that the declaration could mean a "more troublesome time ahead for relations between Asia's two greatest powers."

In the next four years of the Bush administration, Campbell said Asia will be the "most likely place where the U.S. can face major strategic surprises."

Campbell predicted that at least parts of the U.S. government will be more critical and straightforward about their concerns over China.

Over the last couple of years, top U.S. government leaders repeatedly stated that U.S.-China relations are "the best that they've ever been," he said.

"I think that's largely the case. But at the same time, many Asian allies have come to Washington and said that China is eating America's lunch in Asia," Campbell noted. While the U.S. was focused on other areas, "China's rise -- always talked about in the future tense -- has occurred," he added.

"At least parts of the U.S. government are going to be more critical, and speak out more directly, about anxieties about China's military buildup, about exclusionary diplomacy in Asia and about other provocative activities associated with cross-Strait relations," he said.

"So you will see slightly less friendly relationship between Beijing and Washington. More tension, a little bit greater attempts to put out more publicly issues of concern, and I think the beginning step of that was the recent declaration," he noted.

Meanwhile, North Korea's suspected nuclear program will continue to be one of the biggest security challenges the United States will face in the short term.

More alarming, he said, is that "the U.S. does not have a strategy about what to do next in terms of North Korea."

"We fundamentally have concerns about sitting down and negotiating with North Korea (because) they have essentially violated every agreement they have signed in the past. And also there is a worry that by actually sitting down with North Korea, you sustain a leadership that is deeply problematic," he said.

"But at the same time we have very few other options," Campbell noted.

Military options are "off the table" given the prospect for "an unparalleled damage," he said. And the Bush administration policy of trying to urge China to pressure North Korea into scrapping its nuclear program "has run its course," according to Campbell.

"So I'm not sure exactly what the U.S. is going to do next. But I can assure you that the fact that North Korea has moved aggressively to claim that it is a nuclear power goes at the very heart of the Bush strategy," Campbell said.

The current situation is "extraordinarily risky to regional stability," he said.

Campbell went on to say that there appears to be a consensus among major powers to "pretend" as if North Korea's nuclear development is "not happening." However, he added, it is "not impossible to imagine that by the end of this year North Korea will have 10, 12 maybe 15 nuclear weapons."

Campbell also expressed concern over recent opinion poll results pointing to rapid declines in support for the United States among people in Southeast Asian countries, reflecting their anxieties over the U.S. position in the war on Iraq and other issues.

"Even though we think generally that the focus area of the larger war on terrorism is in the Middle East, we all recognize that the hearts and minds challenges are largely in Southeast Asia," he said. "The largest population of Islamic believers -- largely the most moderate versions of Islam -- and the greatest models for a political representation and religious tolerance are all found in Southeast Asia."

In this sense, he noted, the U.S. and Japan must build on their rapid responses to the recent tsunami disasters in the region.